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	<title>Sports Betting &#187; Wagering</title>
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	<description>Predicting sports results by making a wager on the outcome of a sporting event</description>
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		<title>Sucker bet</title>
		<link>http://www.sportbooking.eu/2009/12/sucker-bet/</link>
		<comments>http://www.sportbooking.eu/2009/12/sucker-bet/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Wed, 09 Dec 2009 17:43:06 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>admin</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Wagering]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.sportbooking.eu/?p=1387</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[A sucker bet is a bet based on something other than expected return including: parlays: One bet ticket written with at least two wagers (all must win for the ticket to cash). teaser: A sucker wager that allows bettors to add and subtract points from posted odds. exotic: Any wager other than a straight bet [...]]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<fb:like href='http://www.sportbooking.eu/2009/12/sucker-bet/' send='true' layout='standard' show_faces='true' width='450' height='65' action='like' colorscheme='light' font='lucida+grande'></fb:like><p>A <strong>sucker bet</strong> is a bet based on something other than expected return  including:</p>
<ul>
<li>parlays: One bet ticket written with at least two wagers (all must win  	for the ticket to cash).</li>
<li>teaser: A sucker wager that allows bettors to add and subtract points  	from posted odds.</li>
<li>exotic: Any wager other than a straight bet or parlay (also referred to  	as a proposition or prop).</li>
</ul>
<p>To calculate expected return, use the following formula: EXPECTED RETURN =  POTENTIAL WINNING * PROBABILITY OF WINNING &#8211; POTENTIAL COST * PROBABILITY OF  LOSING.</p>
<p>It is a bet where the odds of winning are significantly and clearly worse  than the payout.</p>
<p>For example, the chances of correctly guessing the order of the final 3 cards  of Faro is usually 1 in 4, yet the bet only pays 3:1. Taking insurance in  Blackjack is also often considered a sucker bet.</p>
<p>Sucker bets are often created to offer higher payouts to offer the player a  chance at &#8220;fast money&#8221; in exchange for a decreased chance of winning.</p>
<h2>Sources</h2>
<ul>
<li> <a title="http://www.betwsi.com/online_sports_betting_wagering_glossary_.html" href="http://www.betwsi.com/online_sports_betting_wagering_glossary_.html"> Betting glossary</a></li>
<li> <a title="http://members.cox.net/mathmistakes/glossary1.htm" href="http://members.cox.net/mathmistakes/glossary1.htm"> Glossary of Mathematical Mistakes</a></li>
</ul>
<p>This guide is licensed under the <a href="http://www.gnu.org/copyleft/fdl.html">GNU Free Documentation License</a>.  It uses material from the <a href="http://www.wikipedia.org/">Wikipedia</a>.</p>
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		<title>Simon-Ehrlich wager</title>
		<link>http://www.sportbooking.eu/2009/10/simon-ehrlich-wager/</link>
		<comments>http://www.sportbooking.eu/2009/10/simon-ehrlich-wager/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Sat, 10 Oct 2009 14:43:15 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>admin</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Wagering]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[famous wagers]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Julian L. Simon]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Paul Ehrlich]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Simon-Ehrlich wager]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[wager]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.sportbooking.eu/2009/10/simon-ehrlich-wager/</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Julian L. Simon and Paul Ehrlich entered in a famous wager in 1980, betting on a mutually agreed upon measure of resource scarcity over the decade leading up to 1990. The wager Simon had Ehrlich choose five of several commodity metals. Ehrlich chose 5 metals: copper, chrome, nickel, tin, and tungsten. Simon bet that their [...]]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<fb:like href='http://www.sportbooking.eu/2009/10/simon-ehrlich-wager/' send='true' layout='standard' show_faces='true' width='450' height='65' action='like' colorscheme='light' font='lucida+grande'></fb:like><p>Julian L. Simon and Paul Ehrlich entered in a famous wager in 1980, betting on a  mutually agreed upon measure of resource scarcity over the decade leading up to  1990.</p>
<h2>The wager</h2>
<p>Simon had Ehrlich choose five of several commodity metals. Ehrlich chose 5  metals: copper, chrome, nickel, tin, and tungsten. Simon bet that their prices  would go down. Ehrlich bet they would go up.</p>
<p><em>&#8220;The face-off occurred in the pages of Social Science Quarterly, where  Simon challenged Ehrlich to put his money where his mouth was. In response to  Ehrlich&#8217;s published claim that &#8220;If I were a gambler, I would take even money  that England will not exist in the year 2000&#8243; &#8211; a proposition Simon regarded as  too silly to bother with &#8211; Simon countered with &#8220;a public offer to stake  US$10,000 &#8230; on my belief that the cost of non-government-controlled raw  materials (including grain and oil) will not rise in the long run.</em></p>
<p><em>You could name your own terms: select any raw material you wanted &#8211;  copper, tin, whatever &#8211; and select any date in the future, &#8220;any date more than a  year away,&#8221; and Simon would bet that the commodity&#8217;s price on that date would be  lower than what it was at the time of the wager.&#8221;</em> <em>&#8230;</em> <em>Ehrlich and  his colleagues picked five metals that they thought would undergo big price  rises: chromium, copper, nickel, tin, and tungsten. Then, on paper, they bought  $200 worth of each, for a total bet of $1,000, using the prices on September 29,  1980, as an index. They designated September 29, 1990, 10 years hence, as the  payoff date. If the inflation-adjusted prices of the various metals rose in the  interim, Simon would pay Ehrlich the combined difference; if the prices fell,  Ehrlich et al. would pay Simon.</em> <em>&#8230;</em> <em>Between 1980 and 1990, the  world&#8217;s population grew by more than 800 million, the largest increase in one  decade in all of history. But by September 1990, without a single exception, the  price of each of Ehrlich&#8217;s selected metals had fallen, and in some cases had  dropped through the floor. Chrome, which had sold for $3.90 a pound in 1980, was  down to $3.70 in 1990. Tin, which was $8.72 a pound in 1980, was down to $3.88 a  decade later.</em> <a title="http://www.wired.com/wired/archive/5.02/ffsimon_pr.html" href="http://www.wired.com/wired/archive/5.02/ffsimon_pr.html"> [1]</a></p>
<p>As a result, in October 1990, Paul Ehrlich mailed Julian Simon a check for  $576.07 to settle the wager in Simon&#8217;s favor.</p>
<h2>Analysis of why Ehrlich lost</h2>
<p>According to Paul Ehrlich&#8217;s website: <em>&#8220;In 1980, Julian Simon repeatedly  challenged environmental scientists to bet against him on trends in prices of  commodities, asserting that humanity would never run out of anything. Paul and  the other scientists knew that the five metals in the proposed wager were not  critical indicators and said so at the time. They emphasized that the depletion  of so-called renewable resources&#8211;environmental resources such as soils,  forests, species diversity, and groundwater&#8211;is much more indicative of the  deteriorating state of society&#8217;s life-support systems&#8230;.Nonetheless, after  consulting with many colleagues, Paul and Berkeley physicists John Harte and  John Holdren accepted Simon&#8217;s challenge in late 1980&#8230;&#8221;</em></p>
<p>Julian Simon won because the price of three of the five metals went down in  absolute terms and all five of the metals fell in price in inflation adjusted  terms <a title="http://www.overpopulation.com/faq/People/julian_simon.html" href="http://www.overpopulation.com/faq/People/julian_simon.html"> [2]</a> with both tin and tungsten falling by more than half (inflation  adjusted). So, per the terms of the wager, Ehrlich paid Simon the difference in  price between the same quantity of metals in 1980 and 1990 (which was $576.07).  The prices of all five metals increased between 1950 and 1975, but Ehrlich  believes three of the five went down during the 1980s because of the price of  oil doubling in 1979, and because of a worldwide recession in the early 1980s.</p>
<p>Yet, it is significant that <em>&#8220;All of the former&#8217;s [Ehrlich's] grim  predictions had been decisively overturned by events. Ehrlich was wrong about  higher natural resource prices, about &#8220;famines of unbelievable proportions&#8221;  occurring by 1975, about &#8220;hundreds of millions of people starving to death&#8221; in  the 1970s and &#8217;80s, about the world &#8220;entering a genuine age of scarcity.&#8221;</em></p>
<p>In 1990, for his having promoted &#8220;greater public understanding of  environmental problems,&#8221; Ehrlich received a MacArthur Foundation &#8220;genius&#8221;  award.&#8221; <em> <a title="http://www.wired.com/wired/archive/5.02/ffsimon_pr.html" href="http://www.wired.com/wired/archive/5.02/ffsimon_pr.html"> [3]</a></em></p>
<p><em>&#8220;[Simon] always found it somewhat peculiar that neither the Science piece  nor his public wager with Ehrlich nor anything else that he did, said, or wrote  seemed to make much of a dent on the world at large. For some reason he could  never comprehend, people were inclined to believe the very worst about anything  and everything; they were immune to contrary evidence just as if they&#8217;d been  medically vaccinated against the force of fact. Furthermore, there seemed to be  a bizarre reverse-Cassandra effect operating in the universe: whereas the  mythical Cassandra spoke the awful truth and was not believed, these days  &#8220;experts&#8221; spoke awful falsehoods, and they were believed. Repeatedly being wrong  actually seemed to be an advantage, conferring some sort of puzzling magic glow  upon the speaker.&#8221;</em> <a title="http://www.wired.com/wired/archive/5.02/ffsimon_pr.html" href="http://www.wired.com/wired/archive/5.02/ffsimon_pr.html"> [4]</a></p>
<p>Simon offered to raise the wager to $20,000 and use any resources at any time  that Ehrlich preferred, but the two were unable to reach an agreement on the  terms of a second wager.</p>
<h2>The proposed second wager</h2>
<p>Understanding that Simon wanted to bet again, Ehrlich and climatologist  Stephen Schneider counter-offered, challenging Simon to bet on 15 current  trends, betting $1000 that each will get worse (as in the previous wager) over a  ten year future period.</p>
<p>The trends they bet would continue to worsen were:</p>
<blockquote><p>The three years 2002-2004 will on average be warmer than 1992-1994.<br />
There will be more carbon dioxide in the atmosphere in 2004 than in 1994.<br />
There will be more nitrous oxide in the atmosphere in 2004 than 1994.<br />
The concentration of ozone in the lower atmosphere (the troposphere) will be  	greater than in 1994.<br />
Emissions of the air pollutant sulfur dioxide in Asia will be significantly  	greater in 2004 than in 1994.<br />
There will be less fertile cropland per person in 2004 than in 1994.<br />
There will be less agricultural soil per person in 2004 than 1994.<br />
There will be on average less rice and wheat grown per person in 2002-2004  	than in 1992-1994.<br />
In developing nations there will be less firewood available per person in  	2004 than in 1994.<br />
The remaining area of virgin tropical moist forests will be significantly  	smaller in 2004 than in 1994.<br />
The oceanic fisheries harvest per person will continue its downward trend  	and thus in 2004 will be smaller than in 1994.<br />
There will be fewer plant and animal species still extant in 2004 than in  	1994.<br />
More people will die of AIDS in 2004 than in 1994.<br />
Between 1994 and 2004, sperm cell counts of human males will continue to  	decline and reproductive disorders will continue to increase.<br />
The gap in wealth between the richest 10% of humanity and the poorest 10%  	will be greater in 2004 than in 1994.</p></blockquote>
<p>Simon declined the bet, and used the following analogy to explain why he did  so:</p>
<p><em>&#8220;Let me characterize their [Ehrlich and Schneider's] offer as follows. I  predict, and this is for real, that the average performances in the next  Olympics will be better than those in the last Olympics. On average, the  performances have gotten better, Olympics to Olympics, for a variety of reasons.  What Ehrlich and others says is that they don&#8217;t want to bet on athletic  performances, they want to bet on the conditions of the track, or the weather,  or the officials, or any other such indirect measure.&#8221;</em></p>
<h2>External links</h2>
<ul>
<li> <a title="http://www.wired.com/wired/archive/5.02/ffsimon_pr.html" href="http://www.wired.com/wired/archive/5.02/ffsimon_pr.html"> Wired Magazine article on Julian Simon as Doomslayer and the wager</a></li>
<li> <a title="http://www.stanford.edu/group/CCB/Pubs/Ecofablesdocs/thebet.htm" href="http://www.stanford.edu/group/CCB/Pubs/Ecofablesdocs/thebet.htm"> Paul Ehrlich&#8217;s webpage on the two Simon bets</a></li>
<li> <a title="http://www.overpopulation.com/simon_bet.html" href="http://www.overpopulation.com/simon_bet.html"> http://www.overpopulation.com/simon_bet.html</a></li>
<li> <a title="http://dieoff.org/page27.htm" href="http://dieoff.org/page27.htm"> Overpopulation &#8212; The Population Explosion</a> &#8220;Brownlash&#8221; and the wager</li>
<li> <a title="http://www.libertarian.to/NewsDta/templates/news1.php?art=art464" href="http://www.libertarian.to/NewsDta/templates/news1.php?art=art464"> &#8220;Julian Simon&#8217;s Bet With Paul Ehrlich&#8221;</a> by Brian Carnell at Libertarian  	International website</li>
</ul>
<p>This guide is licensed under the <a href="http://www.gnu.org/copyleft/fdl.html">GNU Free Documentation License</a>.  It uses material from the <a href="http://www.wikipedia.org/">Wikipedia</a>.</p>
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		<title>Scientific wagers</title>
		<link>http://www.sportbooking.eu/2009/05/scientific-wagers/</link>
		<comments>http://www.sportbooking.eu/2009/05/scientific-wagers/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Wed, 13 May 2009 20:14:10 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>admin</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Wagering]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[famous]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Richard Feynman]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[scientific methods]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[scientific wagers]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[scientists]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Stanford Linear Accelerator]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Stephen Hawking]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[wagers]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.sportbooking.eu/?p=986</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[A scientific wager is a wager whose outcome is settled by scientific method. They typically consist of an offer to pay a certain sum of money on the scientific proof or disproof of some currently uncertain statement. Some wagers have specific date restrictions for collection, but many are open. Wagers occasionally exert a powerful galvanizing [...]]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<fb:like href='http://www.sportbooking.eu/2009/05/scientific-wagers/' send='true' layout='standard' show_faces='true' width='450' height='65' action='like' colorscheme='light' font='lucida+grande'></fb:like><p>A <strong>scientific wager</strong> is a wager whose outcome is settled by scientific  method. They typically consist of an offer to pay a certain sum of money on the  scientific proof or disproof of some currently uncertain statement. Some wagers  have specific date restrictions for collection, but many are open. Wagers  occasionally exert a powerful galvanizing effect on society and the scientific  community.Notable scientists who have made scientific wagers include Stephen  Hawking and Richard Feynman. Stanford Linear Accelerator has an open book  containing about 35 bets in particle physics dating back to 1980; many are still  unresolved.</p>
<h2>Famous scientific wagers</h2>
<ul>
<li>In 1959, Richard Feynman bet $1000 that no-one could construct a motor  	no bigger than 1/64 of an inch on a side. He lost the bet when Bill  	McLennan, using amateur radio skills, constructed such a motor. Feynman had  	never formalized the bet because he couldn&#8217;t define his terms sufficiently  	precisely, but paid up anyway; Feynman is also on record as saying that he  	was disappointed with the outcome because he had hoped his reward would  	stimulate some new fabrication technology, but McLellan&#8217;s motor used only  	existing techniques. Physicist Philip Ball, writing in Nature Materials,  	discusses this episode and concludes &#8220;Do we, like Feynman, always  	underestimate what our current technologies can achieve?&#8221;</li>
<li>In 1975, cosmologist Stephen Hawking bet fellow cosmologist Kip Thorne a  	subscription to Penthouse magazine for Thorne against four years of Private  	Eye for him that a Cygnus X-1 would turn out not to be a black hole. It was,  	so Hawking lost. It has been said that Hawking hoped to lose the bet as so  	much of his own work depended upon the existence of black holes. For  	Hawking, then, the bet was a type of insurance.</li>
<li>In 1997 Stephen Hawking and Kip Thorne made a bet with John Preskill on  	the ultimate resolution of the apparent contradiction between Hawking  	radiation resulting in loss of information, and a requirement of quantum  	mechanics that information cannot be destroyed. Hawking and Thorne bet that  	information must be lost in a black hole; Preskill bet that it must not. The  	formal wager is: &#8220;When an initial pure quantum state undergoes gravitational  	collapse to form a black hole, the final state at the end of black hole  	evaporation will always be a pure quantum state&#8221;. The stake is an  	encyclopedia of the winner&#8217;s choice, from which &#8220;information can be  	recovered at will&#8221;. Hawking conceded the bet in 2004. See also: Thorne  	Hawking Preskill bet</li>
<li>In 1980, biologist Paul R. Ehrlich bet economist Julian Lincoln Simon  	that the price of a portfolio of $200 of each of five mineral commodities  	(copper, chromium, nickel, tin, and tungsten) would rise over the next 10  	years. He lost: by 1990, the prices had fallen to $576. See also: Wager  	between Julian Simon and Paul Ehrlich.</li>
<li>In 1870, Alfred Russel Wallace bet John Hampden, a believer in the  	flat-Earth theory, that he (Wallace) could prove the flat Earth hypothesis  	incorrect. The sum staked was £500 (then worth a great deal more than now).  	A test, involving a stretch of the Old Bedford Canal, in London, was agreed  	on: Wallace measured the curvature of the canal&#8217;s surface using two markers  	separated by about five kilometres and suspended at equal heights above the  	water&#8217;s surface. Using a telescope mounted 5km from one of the markers,  	Wallace established that the nearer one appeared to be the higher of the  	two. An independent referee agreed that this showed the Earth&#8217;s surface to  	curve away from the telescope, and so Wallace received his money. However,  	Hampden never accepted the result and made increasingly unpleasant threats  	to Wallace.</li>
<li>In 1684, Christopher Wren announced that he would give a book worth 40  	shillings to anyone who could deduce Kepler&#8217;s laws from the inverse-square  	law. Isaac Newton&#8217;s musings on this problem eventually grew into his  	Principia. However, Newton was too late to qualify for the book. Historian  	Alan Shapiro has stated that this episode was &#8220;undoubtedly one of the most  	crucial wagers in scientific history&#8221;.</li>
</ul>
<h2>See also</h2>
<ul>
<li>The efforts of photographer Eadweard Muybridge to capture the motion of  	a galloping horse were not part of a wager, contrary to popular opinion.</li>
<li>Pascal&#8217;s wager is not a wager in the sense used in this article.</li>
</ul>
<p>This guide is licensed under the <a href="http://www.gnu.org/copyleft/fdl.html">GNU Free Documentation License</a>.  It uses material from the <a href="http://www.wikipedia.org/">Wikipedia</a>.</p>
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		<title>Proposition bet</title>
		<link>http://www.sportbooking.eu/2009/03/proposition-bet/</link>
		<comments>http://www.sportbooking.eu/2009/03/proposition-bet/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Sat, 28 Mar 2009 14:53:25 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>admin</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Wagering]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Gambling]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Golf]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Howard "The Professor" Lederer]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[proposition bet]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.sportbooking.eu/?p=834</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[In gambling, a proposition bet (also called a prop bet) is any bet made for a sum of money that involves a proposition. An example is the professional poker player, Howard &#8220;The Professor&#8221; Lederer, a vegetarian who wagered $10,000 with a fellow gambler that he could eat a cheeseburger. He did it and won the [...]]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<fb:like href='http://www.sportbooking.eu/2009/03/proposition-bet/' send='true' layout='standard' show_faces='true' width='450' height='65' action='like' colorscheme='light' font='lucida+grande'></fb:like><p>In gambling, a <strong>proposition bet</strong> (also called a prop bet) is any bet  made for a sum of money that involves a proposition. An example is the  professional poker player, Howard &#8220;The Professor&#8221; Lederer, a vegetarian who  wagered $10,000 with a fellow gambler that he could eat a cheeseburger. He did  it and won the money. Golf is a very common game for prop bets.</p>
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		<title>Theoretical challenges and commercial interest in prediction market</title>
		<link>http://www.sportbooking.eu/2009/03/theoretical-challenges-and-commercial-interest-in-prediction-market/</link>
		<comments>http://www.sportbooking.eu/2009/03/theoretical-challenges-and-commercial-interest-in-prediction-market/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Mon, 09 Mar 2009 17:58:07 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>admin</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Prediction market]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[academic research]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Business]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[challenges]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[commercial interest]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[concept]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[economists]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[inaccuracy]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[manipulation]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[market prices]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[predictions]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[sales forecasting]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[speculative bubbles]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[systems]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[theoretical]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.sportbooking.eu/?p=610</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Theoretical challenges Some academic research has focused on potential flaws with the prediction market concept. In particular, Dr. Charles F. Manksi of the Northwestern University Department of Economics published a paper in 2004, “Interpreting the Predictions of Prediction Markets”, [2] in which he attempts to show mathematically that under a wide range of assumptions the [...]]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<fb:like href='http://www.sportbooking.eu/2009/03/theoretical-challenges-and-commercial-interest-in-prediction-market/' send='true' layout='standard' show_faces='true' width='450' height='65' action='like' colorscheme='light' font='lucida+grande'></fb:like><h2>Theoretical challenges</h2>
<p>Some academic research has focused on potential flaws with the prediction  market concept. In particular, Dr. Charles F. Manksi of the Northwestern  University Department of Economics published a paper in 2004, “Interpreting the  Predictions of Prediction Markets”, <a class="external autonumber" title="http://www.faculty.econ.northwestern.edu/faculty/manski/prediction_markets.pdf" href="http://www.faculty.econ.northwestern.edu/faculty/manski/prediction_markets.pdf"> [2]</a> in which he attempts to show mathematically that under a wide range of  assumptions the &#8220;predictions&#8221; of such markets do not closely correspond to the  actual probability beliefs of the market participants unless the market  probability is near either 0 or 1. Manski suggests that directly asking a group  of participants to estimate probabilities may lead to better results. However,  Steven Gjerstad (Purdue) in his paper &#8220;Risk Aversion, Beliefs, and Prediction  Market Equilibrium&#8221; <a class="external autonumber" title="http://econ.arizona.edu/downloads/working_papers/Econ-WP-04-17.pdf" href="http://econ.arizona.edu/downloads/working_papers/Econ-WP-04-17.pdf"> [3]</a> has shown that prediction market prices are typically very close to the  mean belief of market participants if the distribution of beliefs is smooth (as  with a normal distribution, for example). Justin Wolfers (Wharton) and Eric  Zitzewitz (Stanford) have obtained similar results, and also include some  analysis of prediction market data, in their paper &#8220;Interpreting Prediction  Market Prices as Probabilities&#8221; <a class="external autonumber" title="http://bpp.wharton.upenn.edu/jwolfers/Papers/InterpretingPredictionMarketPrices.pdf" href="http://bpp.wharton.upenn.edu/jwolfers/Papers/InterpretingPredictionMarketPrices.pdf"> [4]</a>. In practice, the prices of binary prediction markets have proven to be  closely related to actual frequencies of event in the real world. Relevant data  has been published in Pennock et al&#8217;s &#8220;The real power of artificial markets&#8221; <a class="external autonumber" title="http://artificialmarkets.com/am/pennock-2001-science.pdf" href="http://artificialmarkets.com/am/pennock-2001-science.pdf"> [5]</a> (Science, 2001) and Servan-Schreiber et al&#8217;s &#8220;Prediction Markets: Does  Money Matter?&#8221; <a class="external autonumber" title="http://www.newsfutures.com/pdf/Does_money_matter.pdf" href="http://www.newsfutures.com/pdf/Does_money_matter.pdf"> [6]</a> (Electronic Markets, 2004).</p>
<p>Prediction markets also suffer from the same types of inaccuracy as other  kinds of market, i.e. liquidity or other factors not intended to be measured are  taken into account as risk factors by the market participants, distorting the  market probabilities. There can also be direct attempts to manipulate such  markets. In the Tradesports 2004 presidential markets there was an apparent  manipulation effort (an anonymous trader sold short so many Bush 2004  presidential futures contracts that the price was driven to zero, implying a  zero percent chance that Bush would win. The only rational purpose of such a  trade would be an attempt to manipulate the market in a strategy called a &#8220;bear  raid&#8221;. The manipulation effort failed, however, as the price of the contract  rebounded rapidly to its previous level.) As more press attention is paid to  prediction markets, it is likely that more groups will be motivated to  manipulate them. However, in practice, such attempts at manipulation have always  proven to be very short lived. In their forthcoming paper entitled &#8220;Information  Aggregation and Manipulation in an Experimental Market&#8221; (2005) <a class="external autonumber" title="http://hanson.gmu.edu/biastest.pdf" href="http://hanson.gmu.edu/biastest.pdf"> [7]</a>, Hanson, Oprea and Porter (George Mason U), show how attempts at market  manipulation in fact end up increasing the accuracy of the market because they  provide that much more profit incentive to bet against the manipulator.</p>
<p>Prediction markets may also be subject to speculative bubbles. For example in  the year 2000 IEM presidential futures markets a flood of new traders in the  final week of the election caused the market to gyrate wildly, making its  &#8220;predictions&#8221; useless.</p>
<p>A common belief among economists and the financial community in general is  that prediction markets based on play money cannot possibly generate credible  predictions. However, the data collected so far disagrees. <a class="external text" title="http://artificialmarkets.com/am/pennock-2001-science.pdf" href="http://artificialmarkets.com/am/pennock-2001-science.pdf"> Pennock et al (Science, 2001)</a> analyzed data from the Hollywood Stock  Exchange and the Foresight Exchange and concluded that market prices predicted  actual outcomes and/or outcome frequencies in the real world. <a class="external text" title="http://www.newsfutures.com/pdf/Does_money_matter.pdf" href="http://www.newsfutures.com/pdf/Does_money_matter.pdf"> Servan-Schreiber et al (Electronic Markets, 2004)</a> compared an entire  season&#8217;s worth of NFL predictions from NewsFutures&#8217; play-money exchange to those  of Tradesports, an equivalent real-money exchange based in Ireland. Both  exchanges performed equally well. In this case, using real money did not lead to  better predictions.</p>
<p>Some experimental systems are underway to provide data on alternatives to  prediction markets that seek to avoid some of the theoretical pitfalls mentioned  earlier. For example, polling firm TIPP Online has experimented with &#8220;national  zeitgeist&#8221; questions which ask participants who they think will win rather than  who they will vote for personally. This proved to be a more stable and accurate  predictor in the 2004 US presidential race than traditional polls. Another  experimental system is Owise which directly asks participants to estimate  probabilities on a wide range of future events, and rewards accurate performance  with status, titles, and small cash prizes. Owise functions as a hive mind or a  kind of neural network in which each &#8220;neuron&#8221; is a human being whose predictions  are assigned a weight based on past performance. In fact, this is not so  different from what naturally happens in a prediction market where those who  make good predictions do profit at the expense of those who make bad  predictions, thus progressively increasing their relative influence on the  market through how much money they can bring to bear to back up their  predictions. There is currently not enough data and history to check how these  alternatives will compare to prediction markets in terms of forecasting ability.</p>
<h2>Commercial interest</h2>
<ul>
<li>Hewlett-Packard pioneered applications in sales forecasting and now uses  	prediction markets in several business units. Mentioned in academic  	publications from HP Labs. Also mentioned in Newsweek 	<a class="external autonumber" title="http://msnbc.msn.com/id/3087117/" href="http://msnbc.msn.com/id/3087117/"> [8]</a> (October 2004)</li>
<li>Corning, Eli Lilly, Abbott Labs, Siemens, Masterfoods, Arcelor and other  	global companies are listed 	<a class="external autonumber" title="http://us.newsfutures.com/home/company.html" href="http://us.newsfutures.com/home/company.html"> [9]</a> as NewsFutures customers.</li>
<li>Intel mentioned in Harvard Business Review (April 2003) in relation to  	managing manufacturing capacity.</li>
<li>Microsoft is piloting prediction markets internally.</li>
<li>France Telecom&#8217;s Project Destiny has been in use since mid-2004, with  	very successful predictive behaviour.</li>
<li>Google has confirmed that it uses a predictive market internally in its  	official blog 	<a class="external autonumber" title="http://googleblog.blogspot.com/2005/09/putting-crowd-wisdom-to-work.html" href="http://googleblog.blogspot.com/2005/09/putting-crowd-wisdom-to-work.html"> [10]</a>.</li>
</ul>
<p>This guide is licensed under the <a href="http://www.gnu.org/copyleft/fdl.html">GNU Free Documentation License</a>.  It uses material from the <a href="http://www.wikipedia.org/">Wikipedia</a>.</p>
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		<title>Prediction market</title>
		<link>http://www.sportbooking.eu/2009/02/prediction-market/</link>
		<comments>http://www.sportbooking.eu/2009/02/prediction-market/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Fri, 20 Feb 2009 22:14:57 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>admin</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Prediction market]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[academic]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[articles]]></category>
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		<category><![CDATA[betting]]></category>
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		<category><![CDATA[decision markets]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[event-driven futures exchanges]]></category>
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		<category><![CDATA[idea futures]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[information markets]]></category>
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		<category><![CDATA[virtual markets]]></category>

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		<description><![CDATA[Prediction markets are speculative (i.e., betting) markets created for the purpose of making predictions. Assets are created whose final cash value is tied to a particular event (e.g., will the next US president be a Republican) or parameter (e.g., total sales next quarter). The current market prices can then be interpreted as predictions of the [...]]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<fb:like href='http://www.sportbooking.eu/2009/02/prediction-market/' send='true' layout='standard' show_faces='true' width='450' height='65' action='like' colorscheme='light' font='lucida+grande'></fb:like><p><strong>Prediction markets</strong> are speculative (i.e., betting) markets created for  the purpose of making predictions. Assets are created whose final cash value is  tied to a particular event (e.g., will the next US president be a Republican) or  parameter (e.g., total sales next quarter). The current market prices can then  be interpreted as predictions of the probability of the event or the expected  value of the parameter. Other names for prediction markets include information  markets, decision markets, idea futures, and virtual markets.People who buy  low and sell high are rewarded for improving the market prediction, while those  who buy high and sell low are punished for degrading the market prediction.  Evidence so far suggests that prediction markets are at least as accurate as  other institutions predicting the same events with a similar pool of  participants.</p>
<p>Public examples include TradeSports, the Iowa Electronic Markets, NewsFutures,  Hollywood Stock Exchange and HedgeStreet. One of the oldest and most famous is  the University of Iowa&#8217;s Iowa Electronic Market. Since 1988, it has predicted  the results of American presidential elections more accurately than traditional  polls 75 percent of the time. The Hollywood Stock Exchange, a virtual market  game established in 1996, in which players buy and sell prediction shares of  movies, actors, directors, and film-related options, correctly predicted 35 of  2005&#8242;s 40 big-category Oscar nominees and 7 out of 8 top category winners.  HedgeStreet, designated in 2004 as a market and regulated by the Commodity  Futures Trading Commission, enables internet traders to speculate on economic  events.</p>
<p>These markets actually have a long and colorful lineage. Betting on elections  was common in the U.S. until at least the 1940s, with formal markets existing on  Wall Street in the months leading up to the race. Newspapers reported market  conditions to give a sense of the closeness of the contest in this period prior  to scientific polling. The markets involved thousands of participants, had  millions of dollars in volume in current terms, and had remarkable predictive  accuracy. See Paul Rhode and Koleman Strumpf (2004) <a class="external autonumber" title="http://www.unc.edu/%7Ecigar/papers/BettingPaper_10Nov2003_long2.pdf" href="http://www.unc.edu/~cigar/papers/BettingPaper_10Nov2003_long2.pdf"> [1]</a> for additional details.</p>
<p>In July 2003, the U.S. Department of Defense publicized a Policy Analysis  Market and on their website speculated that additional topics for markets might  include terrorist attacks. A critical backlash quickly denounced the program as  a &#8220;terrorism futures market&#8221; and the Pentagon hastily cancelled the program.</p>
<p>Prediction markets were championed in James Surowiecki&#8217;s 2004 book The Wisdom  of Crowds.</p>
<p>Prediction markets are rapidly becoming useful decision support tools for  corporations. Several major companies in the US and in Europe are current users  of internal prediction markets.</p>
<h2>Commercial interest</h2>
<ul>
<li>Hewlett-Packard pioneered applications in sales forecasting and now uses  	prediction markets in several business units. Mentioned in academic  	publications from HP Labs. Also mentioned in Newsweek 	<a class="external autonumber" title="http://msnbc.msn.com/id/3087117/" href="http://msnbc.msn.com/id/3087117/"> [8]</a> (October 2004)</li>
<li>Corning, Eli Lilly, Abbott Labs, Siemens, Masterfoods, Arcelor and other  	global companies are listed 	<a class="external autonumber" title="http://us.newsfutures.com/home/company.html" href="http://us.newsfutures.com/home/company.html"> [9]</a> as NewsFutures customers.</li>
<li>Intel mentioned in Harvard Business Review (April 2003) in relation to  	managing manufacturing capacity.</li>
<li>Microsoft is piloting prediction markets internally.</li>
<li>France Telecom&#8217;s Project Destiny has been in use since mid-2004, with  	very successful predictive behaviour.</li>
<li>Google has confirmed that it uses a predictive market internally in its  	official blog 	<a class="external autonumber" title="http://googleblog.blogspot.com/2005/09/putting-crowd-wisdom-to-work.html" href="http://googleblog.blogspot.com/2005/09/putting-crowd-wisdom-to-work.html"> [10]</a>.</li>
</ul>
<h2>Links</h2>
<p>Real-money prediction exchanges (a.k.a. &#8220;event-driven futures exchanges&#8221; in  the U.S., &#8220;betting exchanges&#8221; in the U.K.):</p>
<ul>
<li> <a class="external text" title="http://www.betfair.com/" href="http://www.betfair.com/"> BetFair</a> &#8211; U.K., E.U.</li>
<li> <a class="external text" title="http://www.tradesports.com/" href="http://www.tradesports.com/"> TradeSports</a> &#8211; Ireland, E.U.</li>
<li> <a class="external text" title="http://www.intrade.com/" href="http://www.intrade.com/"> Intrade</a> &#8211; Ireland, E.U.</li>
<li> <a class="external text" title="http://www.biz.uiowa.edu/iem/" href="http://www.biz.uiowa.edu/iem/"> Iowa Electronic Markets</a> &#8211; U.S.A. (no-action letter from CFTC)</li>
<li> <a class="external text" title="http://www.hedgestreet.com/" href="http://www.hedgestreet.com/"> HedgeStreet</a> &#8211; U.S.A. (regulated by CFTC)</li>
<li> <a class="external text" title="http://esm.ubc.ca/" href="http://esm.ubc.ca/"> UBC Election Stock Market</a> &#8211; Canada</li>
<li> <a class="external text" title="http://www.betdaq.com/" href="http://www.betdaq.com/"> Betdaq</a> &#8211; Ireland, E.U.</li>
<li> <a class="external text" title="http://www.spreadfair.com/" href="http://www.spreadfair.com/"> SpreadFair</a> &#8211; U.K., E.U. (regulated by UK&#8217;s Financial Services Authority)</li>
</ul>
<p>Play-money prediction exchanges:</p>
<ul>
<li> <a class="external text" title="http://www.ideosphere.com/" href="http://www.ideosphere.com/"> Foresight Exchange</a> Canada</li>
<li> <a class="external text" title="http://us.newsfutures.com/" href="http://us.newsfutures.com/"> NewsFutures</a> U.S.A. + E.U.</li>
<li> <a class="external text" title="http://www.inklingmarkets.com/" href="http://www.inklingmarkets.com/"> Inkling</a> U.S.A.</li>
<li> <a class="external text" title="http://www.crowdiq.com/" href="http://www.crowdiq.com/"> CrowdIQ</a> U.S.A.</li>
<li> <a class="external text" title="http://www.publicgyan.com/" href="http://www.publicgyan.com/"> PublicGyan</a> India</li>
<li> <a class="external text" title="http://buzz.research.yahoo.com/" href="http://buzz.research.yahoo.com/"> Yahoo! Tech Buzz Game</a> U.S.A.</li>
<li> <a class="external text" title="http://www.hsx.com/" href="http://www.hsx.com/"> Hollywood Stock Exchange</a> U.S.A.</li>
<li> <a class="external text" title="http://www.washingtonsx.com/" href="http://www.washingtonsx.com/"> Washington Stock Exchange</a> U.S.A.</li>
<li> <a class="external text" title="http://weforum.newsfutures.com/" href="http://weforum.newsfutures.com/"> World Economic Forum&#8217;s Global Risks Prediction Market</a> (powered and  	web-hosted by NewsFutures) Switzerland</li>
<li> <a class="external text" title="http://www.cenimar.com/" href="http://www.cenimar.com/"> CENIMAR: Central Intelligence Market</a> U.S.A.</li>
</ul>
<p>News articles and opinion pieces:</p>
<ul>
<li> <a class="external text" title="http://www.chrisfmasse.com/2/2006/2006-03-06_prediction_markets_awards.html" href="http://www.chrisfmasse.com/2/2006/2006-03-06_prediction_markets_awards.html"> The Chris. F. Masse 2005 Awards — Prediction Markets &amp; Decision Markets — by  	Chris. F. Masse</a> &#8211; 2006-03-06</li>
<li> <a class="external text" title="http://www.newsfutures.com/home/NatureNov05.html" href="http://www.newsfutures.com/home/NatureNov05.html"> Wisdom of the crowd &#8211; Nature</a> &#8211; 2005-11-17</li>
<li> <a class="external text" title="http://www.cfo.com/article.cfm/5077917/c_5101083" href="http://www.cfo.com/article.cfm/5077917/c_5101083"> Market Magic &#8211; CFO Magazine</a> &#8211; 2005-11-01</li>
<li> <a class="external text" title="http://www.time.com/time/magazine/article/0,9171,1118373,00.html" href="http://www.time.com/time/magazine/article/0,9171,1118373,00.html"> Place your bets! &#8211; TIME Magazine</a> &#8211; 2005-10-16</li>
<li> <a class="external text" title="http://www.chrisfmasse.com/2/2004/20041231.html" href="http://www.chrisfmasse.com/2/2004/20041231.html"> Chris. F. Masse 2004 Year-End Awards</a> &#8211; (Honorary awards to best and  	worst in prediction markets) &#8211; 2004-12-31</li>
<li> <a class="external text" title="http://hanson.gmu.edu/PAM/press2/fortune-11-29-04.txt" href="http://hanson.gmu.edu/PAM/press2/fortune-11-29-04.txt"> Listen to the People Who Got the Election Right. &#8211; Prediction markets are  	brutally honest and uncannily accurate.</a> &#8211; 2004-11-28</li>
</ul>
<p>Academic research papers:</p>
<ul>
<li> <a class="external text" title="http://hanson.gmu.edu/PAMpress.pdf" href="http://hanson.gmu.edu/PAMpress.pdf"> The Informed Press Favored the Policy Analysis Market</a> &#8211; by Robin Hanson  	- PDF file &#8211; 2005-05-05</li>
<li> <a class="external text" title="http://bpp.wharton.upenn.edu/jwolfers/Papers/InterpretingPredictionMarketPrices.pdf" href="http://bpp.wharton.upenn.edu/jwolfers/Papers/InterpretingPredictionMarketPrices.pdf"> Interpreting Prediction Market Prices as Probabilities</a> &#8211; Justin Wolfers  	and Eric Zitzewitz &#8211; PDF file &#8211; 2005-02-01</li>
<li> <a class="external text" title="http://faculty-gsb.stanford.edu/zitzewitz/Research/Five%20Questions.pdf" href="http://faculty-gsb.stanford.edu/zitzewitz/Research/Five%20Questions.pdf"> Five Open Questions About Prediction Markets</a> &#8211; by Justin Wolfers and  	Eric Zitzewitz &#8211; PDF file &#8211; 2005-01-21</li>
<li> <a class="external text" title="http://www.econlab.arizona.edu/~gjerstad/papers/Gj_2005_PME.pdf" href="http://www.econlab.arizona.edu/~gjerstad/papers/Gj_2005_PME.pdf"> Risk Aversion, Beliefs, and Prediction Market Equilibrium</a> &#8211; by Steve  	Gjerstad &#8211; PDF file &#8211; 2005-01-00</li>
<li> <a class="external text" title="http://www.biz.uiowa.edu/faculty/trietz/papers/AEI-Brookings.pdf" href="http://www.biz.uiowa.edu/faculty/trietz/papers/AEI-Brookings.pdf"> The Iowa Electronic Market: Lessons Learned and Answers Yearned</a> &#8211; by  	Joyce E. Berg and Thomas A. Rietz &#8211; PDF file &#8211; 2005-01-00</li>
<li> <a class="external text" title="http://www.intrade.com/news/images/Dartmouth_Election_Paper_11_9_04%20%282%29.doc" href="http://www.intrade.com/news/images/Dartmouth_Election_Paper_11_9_04%20(2).doc"> Analysis of 2004 Political Futures Markets</a> &#8211; by Ken Allen, Kevin  	Daniels, Darby Kopp and Brian Murdock &#8211; Dartmouth U. &#8211; MS Word .DOC file &#8211;  	2004-11-09</li>
<li> <a class="external text" title="http://www.newsfutures.com/pdf/Does_money_matter.pdf" href="http://www.newsfutures.com/pdf/Does_money_matter.pdf"> Prediction Markets: Does Money Matter?</a> &#8211; by Emile Servan-Schreiber,  	Justin Wolfers, David Pennock &amp; Brian Galebach &#8211; PDF file &#8211; Fall 2004.</li>
<li> <a class="external text" title="http://bpp.wharton.upenn.edu/jwolfers/Papers/Predictionmarkets.pdf" href="http://bpp.wharton.upenn.edu/jwolfers/Papers/Predictionmarkets.pdf"> Prediction Markets</a> &#8211; by Justin Wolfers and Eric Zitzewitz &#8211; PDF file &#8211;  	2004-05-00</li>
<li> <a class="external text" title="http://www.faculty.econ.northwestern.edu/faculty/manski/prediction_markets.pdf" href="http://www.faculty.econ.northwestern.edu/faculty/manski/prediction_markets.pdf"> Interpreting the Predictions of Prediction Markets</a> &#8211; by Charles F.  	Manski &#8211; PDF file &#8211; 2004-02-00</li>
<li> <a class="external text" title="http://www.unc.edu/%7Ecigar/papers/BettingPaper_10Nov2003_long2.pdf" href="http://www.unc.edu/~cigar/papers/BettingPaper_10Nov2003_long2.pdf"> Historical Prediction Markets: Wagering on Presidential Elections</a> &#8211; by  	Paul W. Rhode and Koleman S. Strumpf &#8211; PDF file &#8211; 2003-11-10</li>
</ul>
<p>This guide is licensed under the <a href="http://www.gnu.org/copyleft/fdl.html">GNU Free Documentation License</a>.  It uses material from the <a href="http://www.wikipedia.org/">Wikipedia</a>.</p>
<p><em>Video: What is a prediction market?</em></p>
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		<title>Parlay</title>
		<link>http://www.sportbooking.eu/2009/02/parlay/</link>
		<comments>http://www.sportbooking.eu/2009/02/parlay/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Sat, 14 Feb 2009 14:51:42 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>admin</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Wagering]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[benefit]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[bet]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[parlay]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[payoffs]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[wagers]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.sportbooking.eu/?p=497</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[A parlay is a single bet that links together two or more individual wagers and is dependent on all of those wagers winning together. The benefit of the parlay is that there are much higher payoffs than placing each individual bet separately since the difficulty of hitting it is much higher. If any of the [...]]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<fb:like href='http://www.sportbooking.eu/2009/02/parlay/' send='true' layout='standard' show_faces='true' width='450' height='65' action='like' colorscheme='light' font='lucida+grande'></fb:like><p>A <strong>parlay</strong> is a single bet that links together two or more individual  wagers and is dependent on all of those wagers winning together. The benefit of  the parlay is that there are much higher payoffs than placing each individual  bet separately since the difficulty of hitting it is much higher. If any of the  bets in the parlay loses, the entire parlay loses.For example: Joe placed a  three-team NFL parlay on the Lions, Bears and Bengals. If any one of those teams  fail to cover the spread, Joe loses his parlay bet. But if all three teams beat  the spread, Joe gets paid $600 for every $100 bet.</p>
<h2>Links</h2>
<ul>
<li> <a class="external text" title="http://sportsgambling.about.com/od/sportsgamblingbasics/g/Parlay.htm" href="http://sportsgambling.about.com/od/sportsgamblingbasics/g/Parlay.htm"> About.com definition</a></li>
<li> <a class="external text" title="https://mywebspace.wisc.edu/jmbehnke/web/parlay.html" href="https://mywebspace.wisc.edu/jmbehnke/web/parlay.html"> Parlay Odds Calculator</a> &#8211; Calculate the payout of a potential parlay.</li>
</ul>
<p>This guide is licensed under the <a href="http://www.gnu.org/copyleft/fdl.html">GNU Free Documentation License</a>.  It uses material from the <a href="http://www.wikipedia.org/">Wikipedia</a>.</p>
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		</item>
		<item>
		<title>Betting odds slang</title>
		<link>http://www.sportbooking.eu/2009/02/betting-odds-slang/</link>
		<comments>http://www.sportbooking.eu/2009/02/betting-odds-slang/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Mon, 09 Feb 2009 15:38:45 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>admin</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Odds]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[betting odds slang]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Bottle]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Burlington Bertie]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Carpet]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Cockle]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Double Carpet]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Enin]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Evens]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Face]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[fractional odds]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Gimmel]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Hand]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Levels]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Net]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Nevs]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Rouf]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Scotch]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[T.H.]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Tips]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[X's]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.sportbooking.eu/?p=474</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Betting odds slang is a series of words used to describe particular common fractional odds. Evens &#8211; Levels, Scotch 2/1 &#8211; Bottle 3/1 &#8211; Carpet, Gimmel 4/1 &#8211; Rouf 5/1 &#8211; Hand 5/2 &#8211; Face 6/1 &#8211; X&#8217;s 7/1 &#8211; Nevs 8/1 &#8211; T.H. 9/1 &#8211; Enin 10/1 &#8211; Cockle, Net 11/10 &#8211; Tips 33/1 [...]]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<fb:like href='http://www.sportbooking.eu/2009/02/betting-odds-slang/' send='true' layout='standard' show_faces='true' width='450' height='65' action='like' colorscheme='light' font='lucida+grande'></fb:like><p><strong>Betting odds slang</strong> is a series of words used to describe particular  common fractional odds.</p>
<ul>
<li>Evens &#8211; Levels, Scotch</li>
<li>2/1 &#8211; Bottle</li>
<li>3/1 &#8211; Carpet, Gimmel</li>
<li>4/1 &#8211; Rouf</li>
<li>5/1 &#8211; Hand</li>
<li>5/2 &#8211; Face</li>
<li>6/1 &#8211; X&#8217;s</li>
<li>7/1 &#8211; Nevs</li>
<li>8/1 &#8211; T.H.</li>
<li>9/1 &#8211; Enin</li>
<li>10/1 &#8211; Cockle, Net</li>
<li>11/10 &#8211; Tips</li>
<li>33/1 &#8211; Double Carpet</li>
<li>100/30 &#8211; Burlington Bertie</li>
</ul>
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		<item>
		<title>Odds</title>
		<link>http://www.sportbooking.eu/2009/02/odds/</link>
		<comments>http://www.sportbooking.eu/2009/02/odds/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Thu, 05 Feb 2009 16:17:02 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>admin</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Odds]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Bookmakers]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[events]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[odds]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[probability]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[resources]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[statistics]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[theory]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.sportbooking.eu/?p=446</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[In probability theory and statistics the odds in favor of an event or a proposition are the quantity p / (1 − p), where p is the probability of the event or proposition. The logarithm of the odds is the logit of the probability.Odds have long been the standard way of representing probability used by [...]]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<fb:like href='http://www.sportbooking.eu/2009/02/odds/' send='true' layout='standard' show_faces='true' width='450' height='65' action='like' colorscheme='light' font='lucida+grande'></fb:like><p>In probability theory and statistics the <strong>odds</strong> in favor of an event or a  proposition are the quantity <em>p</em> / (1 − <em>p</em>), where <em>p</em> is the  probability of the event or proposition. The logarithm of the odds is the logit  of the probability.Odds have long been the standard way of representing  probability used by bookmakers, though the method of presenting odds varies by  location.</p>
<p>Taking an event with a 1 in 5 probability of occurring (i.e. 0.2 or 20%),  then the odds are 0.2 / (1 − 0.2) = 0.2 / 0.8 = <strong>0.25</strong>. If you bet 1 at  fair odds and the event occurred, you would receive back 4 plus your original 1  stake. This would be presented in fractional odds of 4 to 1 <em>against</em> (written as 4 : 1 or 4/1), in decimal odds as 5.0 to include the returned stake,  in craps payout as 5 for 1, and in moneyline odds as +400 representing the gain  from a 100 stake.</p>
<p>By contrast, for an event with a 4 in 5 probability of occurring (i.e. 0.8 or  80%), then the odds are 0.8 / (1 − 0.8) = <strong>4</strong>. If you bet 4 at fair odds  and the event occurred, you would receive back 1 plus your original 4 stake.  This would be presented in fractional odds of 4 to 1 <em>on</em> (written as 1 : 4  or 1/4), in decimal odds as 1.25 to include the returned stake, in craps as 5  for 4, and in moneyline odds as −400 representing the stake necessary to gain  100.</p>
<p>The odds are a ratio of probabilities; an odds ratio is a ratio of odds, that  is, a ratio of ratios of probabilities. Odds-ratios are often used in analysis  of clinical trials. While they have useful mathematical properties, they can  produce counter-intuitive results: in the example above an 80% probability is  four times the chance of a 20% probability but the odds are 16 times higher.</p>
<h2>Web resources</h2>
<ul>
<li> <a class="external text" title="http://www.futureaccountant.com/probability/study-notes/default.php" href="http://www.futureaccountant.com/probability/study-notes/default.php"> Notes + Practice Problems to Learn probability and odds at  	&#8220;FutureAccountant.com&#8221;</a></li>
</ul>
<p>This guide is licensed under the <a href="http://www.gnu.org/copyleft/fdl.html">GNU Free Documentation License</a>.  It uses material from the <a href="http://www.wikipedia.org/">Wikipedia</a>.</p>
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		<item>
		<title>Fixed Odds Betting Terminals</title>
		<link>http://www.sportbooking.eu/2009/01/fixed-odds-betting-terminals/</link>
		<comments>http://www.sportbooking.eu/2009/01/fixed-odds-betting-terminals/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Sat, 31 Jan 2009 18:33:19 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>admin</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Wagering]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[bet]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[betting shops]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Betting Tax]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Bingo]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[chips]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[events]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Fixed Odds Betting Terminals]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[fixed-odds]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[FOBT]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[fruit machines]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[games]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[machines]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[outcome]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[players]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Roulette]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Spoof]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[terminals]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Triple Disc]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Virtual Racing]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.sportbooking.eu/?p=427</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[HTML clipboardFixed Odds Betting Terminals (FOBTs) are computerised machines normally found in betting shops which allow players to bet on the outcome of various games and events with Fixed Odds. They were introduced to UK shops in 2002, shortly after the abolition of the Betting Tax in October 2001.The most commonly played game is Roulette. [...]]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<fb:like href='http://www.sportbooking.eu/2009/01/fixed-odds-betting-terminals/' send='true' layout='standard' show_faces='true' width='450' height='65' action='like' colorscheme='light' font='lucida+grande'></fb:like><p>HTML clipboard<strong>Fixed Odds Betting Terminals</strong> (FOBTs) are computerised machines normally  found in betting shops which allow players to bet on the outcome of various  games and events with Fixed Odds. They were introduced to UK shops in 2002,  shortly after the abolition of the Betting Tax in October 2001.The most  commonly played game is Roulette. The minimum bet per spin is £1 and the maximum  is £100. Chips can be as small as 20 pence. The maximum amount that can be won  on any spin is £500.</p>
<p>Other games include Spoof, Bingo, Virtual Racing and Triple Disc.</p>
<p>Shops are allowed a maximum of four such terminals, although since this  number also includes fruit machines, many shops have fewer than four.</p>
<p>This guide is licensed under the <a href="http://www.gnu.org/copyleft/fdl.html">GNU Free Documentation License</a>.  It uses material from the <a href="http://www.wikipedia.org/">Wikipedia</a>.</p>
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