Archive for the ‘Prediction market’ Category
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Theoretical challenges and commercial interest in prediction market
Monday, March 9th, 2009
Theoretical challenges Some academic research has focused on potential flaws with the prediction market concept. In particular, Dr. Charles F. Manksi of the Northwestern University Department of Economics published a paper in 2004, “Interpreting the Predictions of Prediction Markets”, [2] in which he attempts to show mathematically that under a wide range of assumptions the [...]
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Prediction market
Friday, February 20th, 2009
Prediction markets are speculative (i.e., betting) markets created for the purpose of making predictions. Assets are created whose final cash value is tied to a particular event (e.g., will the next US president be a Republican) or parameter (e.g., total sales next quarter). The current market prices can then be interpreted as predictions of the [...]